UK Politics Odds
The parliamentary battle over Brexit has gone through so many twists and turns in recent weeks, it can be hard to keep up.
After a dramatic vote last night, MPs have voted to take control of the Brexit process, with a series of non-binding indicative votes lined up later this week for MPs to try and find a consensus and break the current deadlock.
With events so fast-moving, the Brexit process continues to throw up more questions than answers.
Will Theresa May still be Prime Minister in a week’s time?
Will there be a general election in 2019?
And who will have the most seats after that election?
Here are our latest UK politics odds as the Brexit debate continues to rumble on…
General Election – Year of Election
With opinions so entrenched on all sides of the debate, the rumour mill has ramped up this week that a General Election later this spring may be the only way for Theresa May – or another leader – to gain a large enough majority to settle the matter once for all. For that reason, 2019 has moved into 11/10 as the most likely date for the next General Election.
If May can somehow muddle on through the next few months, 2020 could be appealing at 15/4 if her deal gets approved and she hands over to a new leader. That person may want their own mandate and a fresh start next year after two years of political chaos.
Alternatively, could the Tories try and play the long game in a bid to keep Corbyn at bay? It seems unlikely given the instability taking hold at Westminster but 2021 is available at 9/1 with Marathonbet.
General Election – Most Seats / Overall Majority
With the date of the next General Election still very much up in the air due to the current gridlock, it’s hard to predict which party will be in the best shape heading into the next election – particularly if the big Brexit question remains unresolved or unsatisfactory when those wheels are finally put in motion.
With both main parties experiencing their fair share of turbulence over the last year, unsurprisingly they remain nip and tuck in the betting for Most Seats after the next General Election, with the Conservatives just edging things at 8/11 compared to 11/8 for Labour.
Could a political earthquake shake Britain with many voters unhappy with both parties? With The Independent Group making their presence felt in parliament and a ‘Brexit Party’ looking to build momentum, It’s 12/1 for a new party of any other stripe to break the mould and create shockwaves in Westminster.
General Election – Overall Majority
Unsurprisingly given the struggles on all sides, No Overall Majority (10/11) remains a heavy favourite to be the likely shape of parliament after the next election, with the Conservatives at 15/8 and Labour at 7/2 to enjoy the luxury of majority control. Alternatively, an outlandish rise from a start-up party to sweep into power is available at 80/1.
Next Conservative Leader
With Theresa May perhaps sensibly pursung a ‘one day at a time’ survival strategy given her current predicament, attention has switched towards who might be her likely replacement if her delicate balancing act finally collapses in the next of weeks.
Michael Gove is the current market leader at 7/2 after speculation that he could take over as a caretaker in the event May steps down, although David Lidington (7/1) has also been tipped as a ‘safe pair of hands’ should May be forced to stand aside. Both may fancy a crack at the job long term even if they step up on an interim basis.
Brexiteer-in-chief Boris Johnson (4/1) remains popular in the party but might struggle to win favour with MPs, opening the door to younger rival Dominic Raab (10/1) from that wing of the party.
Jeremy Hunt (9/1) and Sajid Javid (10/1) will aim to use cross-party appeal to take the crown, while Penny Mordaunt (16/1) and Johnny Mercer (33/1) could appeal if the party decides the time is right for a fresher face.
Next Labour Leader
Jeremy Corbyn increased Labour’s share of the vote by more than any of the party’s post-war leaders back in 2017 and will surely fancy another tilt at a General Election – provided one arrives sooner rather than later.
However, with his 70th birthday approaching this year, speculation has inevitably turned to whether he has the appetite to take on the job of leader – never mind Prime Minister – long term. Firm ally and Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell could be his ready-made replacement at 10/1, although Emily Thornberry currently leads the betting at 9/2 after some impressive performances filling in for Corbyn at Prime Minister’s Questions.
Could Corbyn step aside for a younger leader who shares his politics? Rebecca Long-Bailey has often been tipped as his protégé and at 10/1 deserves serious consideration, while Angela Rayner (8/1) is another member of the Shadow Cabinet who has been making waves in her education brief and looks ready to step up and lead.
Finally, it seems in the increasingly bizarre world of British politics, anything can happen.
Feeling brave? A shock return for three-time election winner Tony Blair to lead his old party is available at 125/1.
Browse all our UK politics odds >>.