Phew! What a summer.
It’s been a budget-busting transfer window full of big-name signings and whopping fees. From Lukaku at Manchester United to Salah landing a £37million switch to Liverpool, there’s plenty to talk about.
So, let it be heard. Who has been your best and worst value transfer of the summer window?
Whilst you think about yours, check out some of the findings from experts at the CIES Football Observatory – a research group within the International Centre for Sports Studies in Switzerland.Their scientists have used in-depth data to produce a report on which new signings represented the best value in recent months.
They reckon Kylian Mbappe’s move to Paris Saint-Germain was one of the worst-value switches of the lot and concluded his initial loan switch from Monaco and eventual permanent transfer will see PSG overpay by some £87million.
The company, which “scientifically estimates fair transfer values”, rated the 18-year-old to be worth just £92.6million – way less than his huge £166million transfer fee.
The likes of FIFA, UEFA, Chelsea and Benfica are just some of the big-name clients to have sought CIES’s expertise since founding in 2005. The academics calculate the value of players using criteria that includes performance data and other characteristics, such as age and length of contract.
Mbappe wasn’t the only player to be analysed by their team. It’s estimated Liverpool’s signing of Egyptian forward Mohamed Salah represents the best bargain of the window following his £37million move from Roma. CIES judged him to be valued at £60million – leaving the Reds with a cool ‘profit’ of more than £20million.
But don’t celebrate too soon, Liverpool fans. The company thinks Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain’s move to the north west from Arsenal saw the club overpay by nearly £11million. Pundit and press reports thought the Ox’s England performance against Slovakia last month left a lot to be desired, so that might leave some fans questioning whether they got a good deal or not.
Other teams allegedly caught out overpaying included big-spenders Barcelona. Their analysis showed Ousmane Dembele could have cost the Catalan giants some £45million more than his actual transfer value of £83million. Ouch.
Manchester City were also on the wrong end of a transfer scalding. Nolito’s switch to Sevilla for £8.81million left City out-of-pocket after CIES valued the Spaniard at a whopping £24.14million. City also splashed out £50million on Benjamin Mendy despite being valued at £25million.
In London, Chelsea bagged the third-best bargain of the summer with their £34million move for Antonio Rudiger. CIES rated him a £47million player.
The CIES Football Observatory said of its report: “As usual, a negative gap was measured between amounts paid and values estimated.
“On average, the former were 30 per cent lower than the latter. It is the biggest difference observed since the implementation of the transfer value algorithm. This finding reflects an acceleration of the inflation occurring in the transfer market.”
Data, stats and expert opinions are all fine in concept. But the real value of this summer’s haul of transfers will be discovered in the coming weeks and months on the pitch.
Let us know who your best summer signings have been by getting in contact on Twitter (@marathonbet) and Facebook.